CREA News

OTTAWA – April 27th, 2012 – The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI), the leading measure of Canadian home prices, stayed above year-ago levels in March 2012 according to statistics released today by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA). Year-over-year gains have been moderating. The increase in March was the smallest since last June.

Highlights:

• The Aggregate Composite MLS® Home Price Index in March 2012 was up 5.1% year-over-year – on par with the gain in February and the smallest increase since June 2011.
• Toronto posted the largest year-over-year increase (7.3%), followed by Vancouver (5.3%), the Fraser Valley (3.3%), Calgary (2.6%), and Montreal (2.2%).
• Year-over-year gains were largest for one-and two-storey single family homes, which rose 5.4% and 6.8% respectively. Apartment prices climbed 3%, and townhouse prices were up 2.6%.

The MLS® Home Price Index rose 5.1 per cent in March 2012 compared to the same month last year. The increase was on par with February’s gain, which was the smallest since last June.

“Overall price trends show that Canada’s housing market continues to moderate,” said Wayne Moen, CREA President. “Price increases have been shrinking since last fall. While that trend paused in March, it may in part reflect an early spring in many parts of the country, resulting in increased competition among buyers. That said, headline numbers mask some important differences in price trends among local housing markets and housing types. Since all real estate is local, buyers and sellers should talk to their local REALTOR® to best understand how home price trends are shaping up where they live.”

The MLS® HPI remained above its year-ago level in all five of the markets tracked, led by Toronto (7.3%).

It also held above year-ago levels in all housing categories tracked, led by two-storey single family homes (6.8%).

The MLS® HPI rose 1.3 per cent from to February to March 2012.

“The index typically experiences these types of month-over-month gains in the spring, which coincides with when the balance of supply to demand is tightest,” said Gregory Klump, CREA’s Chief Economist. “With that in mind, it’s important to look at month-to-month movements in the context of how they compare to the same period in previous years. While the overall monthly price increase was on par with last year’s figure, it masks slowing price momentum in the Lower Mainland area of British Columbia. Slower price gains there were offset in March by a modest acceleration of price gains in Calgary, Toronto, and Montreal.”

Interactive tables and charts for MLS® Home Price Index data on Composite, Single family homes (including separate indices for one- and two-storey homes), Townhouse/row units, and Apartment units are available at www.homepriceindex.ca/hpi_tool_en.html.

Data table available to media upon request, for purposes of reprinting only.  

In focus: Some of the trends underlying the overall MLS® HPI

Momentum in the overall MLS® HPI held steady between February and March 2012, with equal year-over-year gains of 5.1 per cent. However, because the MLS® HPI is composed of four Benchmark housing types and more than 1,600 sub-areas spread among five housing markets, the overall index can mask price trend variations among Benchmark housing categories within a single housing market and between different parts of the country.

Price gains for two-storey single family homes have surpassed this in other housing categories since the beginning of the economic recovery. Despite a recent deceleration in gains, two-storey single family homes posted the strongest year-over-year price gains in March. By contrast, price gains for one-storey single family homes picked up in March, which was driven mainly by increases in Montreal and Toronto.

Price growth remains much stronger for one-and two-storey single family homes compared to multi-family units, with price gains for single family homes (6.4%) running roughly double that for townhouse units (2.6%) or apartment units (3.0%). Even so, there are significant differences between housing markets.

In Montreal, townhouse unit prices are rising faster than prices for other housing types. This likely reflects the desirability of their location, since townhouse units are predominantly centrally located while single family homes are often located further from Montreal’s city centre.

Price gains have remained strongest in Toronto since mid-2011. The rise in Toronto’s Composite MLS® HPI was a full two per cent above the year-over-year increase in Vancouver’s composite index. This represents the largest spread for price growth between these two markets in more than a year. This gap may widen further, since the Vancouver market is showing signs of coming off the boil while a lack of available supply relative to demand keeps Toronto’s housing market in seller’s market territory.

For additional information, including interactive tables, please go to: www.homepriceindex.ca.

MLS® is a co-operative marketing system used only by Canada’s real estate Boards to ensure maximum exposure of properties listed for sale.

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) is one of Canada’s largest single-industry trade associations, representing more than 100,000 REALTORS® working through more than 100 real estate Boards and Associations.

Further statistical information can be found at http://crea.ca/statistics.

The Bank of Canada kept its trend-setting Bank Rate at 1.25 per cent on April 17^th, 2012. While this was the 13^th consecutive policy meeting in which borrowing costs have been left unchanged, it was the first time since last September that a policy announcement has included a reference to the possibility of a rate hike.

The Bank reiterated a number of the more positive developments it first mentioned in the March 8^th announcement. These include a stronger profile for U.S. economic growth, as well as reduced risk emanating from Europe, which the Bank now expects will “emerge slowly from recession in the second half of 2012.”

The Bank also noted that “improved global economic prospects, supply disruptions and geopolitical risks,” are keeping oil prices up which if sustained could prove a risk to the improvement in economic momentum.

In Canada the Bank again declared the biggest risk to be high household debt, adding that it expects households will continue to add to their debt burden as “private domestic demand will account for almost all of Canada’s economic growth over the projection horizon.”

That said, with economic momentum in Canada remaining firmer than the Bank had expected back in January, the forecast for growth this year has been lifted. The Bank now expects the economy will grow at 2.4 per cent this year, up from the 2.0 per cent forecast in January.

At the same time, the Bank lowered its forecast for 2013 to 2.4 per cent from 2.8 per cent, and also extended its forecast out to 2014 with a prediction of 2.2 per cent growth.

The Bank also noted that the amount of slack in the economy had decreased. As such, the Bank now expects the economy will return to full capacity “in the first half of 2013,” which while intentionally vague is still sooner than the previous prediction for a return to full capacity by the third quarter of next year.

The Bank ended the announcement by hinting, for the first time since last September, that it may have to raise rates, stating “In light of the reduced slack in the economy and firmer underlying inflation, some modest withdrawal of the present considerable monetary policy stimulus may become appropriate, consistent with achieving the 2 per cent inflation target over the medium term. The timing and degree of any such withdrawal will be weighed carefully against domestic and global economic developments.”

Further clarification as to when these “modest” rate hikes may be expected will no doubt be the subject of the various speeches and remarks given by the Governor and his deputies between now and the next announcement on June 5^th, 2012.

As of April 17^th 2012, the advertised five-year lending rate stood at 5.44 per cent. This is up 0.2 percentage points from 5.24 per cent on March 8^th, when the Bank made its previous policy interest rate announcement.

(CREA 04/17/2012)

OTTAWA – April 16, 2012 – According to statistics released today by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), national resale housing activity edged higher in March 2012.

Highlights:

• Home sales rose 2.5% from February to March.
• Actual (not seasonally adjusted) activity stood 1.6% above levels in March 2011, the smallest year-over-year increase since last April.
• The number of newly listed homes eased 0.3% from February to March.
• While still well balanced, the national housing market tightened due to the rise in activity.
• The national average home price edged down 0.5% on a year-over-year basis in March.

Sales activity over MLS® Systems of Canadian real estate Boards and Associations rose 2.5 per cent from February to March 2012. The increase lifted national activity to its highest monthly level since April 2010.

Activity in March was up from the previous month in two-thirds of all local markets, with Toronto, Calgary, and Edmonton contributing most to the national increase.

Actual (not seasonally adjusted) activity stood 1.6 per cent above levels in March 2011, the smallest year-over-year increase since last April. It reflects moderate gains in a number of major centres, including Toronto, Calgary, Montreal, Ottawa, and Quebec City. Increases in these housing markets offset larger declines in Vancouver and the Fraser Valley, where activity last year ran at unusually strong levels.

A total of 108,373 homes traded hands in the first three months of the year. This is 5.0 per cent above the five-year average for first quarter sales, 3.8 per cent above the 10-year average, and 4.4 per cent above activity in the first quarter of 2011.

New listings were little changed following their uptick in February, having edged lower by 0.3 per cent on a month-over-month basis in March. The number of newly listed homes declined from the previous month in just over half of all local Canadian housing markets, and rose in almost all of the remainder.

“The spring housing market is off to a good start,” said Wayne Moen, CREA’s President. “The number of sales and newly listed properties are up from levels last year, and the vast majority of housing markets remain balanced. That said, all housing is local, so buyers and sellers should talk to their local REALTOR® to understand current and prospective trends where they live.”

The national housing market remains well balanced, although the monthly increase in sales activity caused the balance between supply and demand to tighten slightly.

The national sales-to-new listings ratio, a measure of market balance, stood at 55.1 per cent in March. This remains firmly in balanced market territory, but is up from 53.6 per cent in February. Based on a ratio of between 40 and 60 per cent, more than half of local markets were balanced in March.

The number of months of inventory stood at 5.7 at the end of March on a national basis, down slightly from 5.8 months in February. The number of months of inventory represents the number of months it would take to sell current inventories at the current rate of sales activity, and is another measure of the balance between housing supply and demand.

The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average price for homes sold in March 2012 was $369,677, representing a decline of one half of a percentage point from the same month last year.

“Average prices are up from year-ago levels in most large urban centres,” said Gregory Klump, CREA’s Chief Economist. “The slight decline in the national average price points to a tug of war between Toronto and Vancouver from the standpoint of their sales mix compared to last year.”

“The national average price was skewed higher last spring by record level high-end home sales in some of Vancouver’s priciest neighbourhoods. It was expected that this would not recur this spring, which the latest sales figures confirm. The decline in average price reflects the change in Vancouver’s sales mix, not housing price deflation.”

“At the same time, overall home sales activity in Toronto is stronger than it was last spring, and higher-end home sales are up from year-ago levels. Being by far the most active housing market in Canada, Toronto represents the single biggest factor supporting national average price compared to last year.”

PLEASE NOTE: The information contained in this news release combines both major market and national MLS® sales information from the previous month.

CREA cautions that average price information can be useful in establishing trends over time, but does not indicate actual prices in centres comprised of widely divergent neighbourhoods or account for price differential between geographic areas. Statistical information contained in this report includes all housing types.

MLS® is a co-operative marketing system used only by Canada’s real estate Boards to ensure maximum exposure of properties listed for sale.

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) is one of Canada’s largest single-industry trade associations, representing more than 100,000 REALTORS® working through more than 100 real estate Boards and Associations.

Further information can be found at http://www.crea.ca/public/news_stats/media.htm.