CREA News

The number of properties sold via the MLS® systems of real estate boards in Canada slipped further in January 2009, according to statistics released by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA).

Seasonally adjusted residential MLS® sales activity numbered 26,376 units in January 2009. This is 3.1 per cent below activity in December 2008, and a decline of 37.3 per cent in activity compared to January 2008.

Monthly percentage declines in seasonally adjusted activity in January 2009 were on par with those in December 2008 (-2.4 per cent month-over-month), and moderate by comparison to October (-14.9 per cent) and November 2008 (-11.8 per cent).

Monthly declines in seasonally adjusted sales activity in British Columbia and Ontario pulled national activity statistics lower, and offset monthly increases in MLS® residential sales activity in Manitoba, and Newfoundland & Labrador.

Actual MLS® resale housing activity totaled 16,343 sales nationally in January 2009, down 40.9 per cent on a year-over-year basis. Only Prince Edward Island recorded an increase in residential units sold, up two per cent compared to January 2008.

The supply of homes for sale remains high, but is trending lower nationally. The decline in new MLS® listings is trending lower in line with sales activity in many regions. Seasonally adjusted new MLS® residential listings numbered 69,875 units in January 2009. This is down three per cent from the previous month, and 13 per cent below the peak reached in May of last year.

The actual (unadjusted) number of new listings on the MLS® systems of real estate boards in Canada posted the largest year-over-year decline on record in January 2009, falling 14.2 per cent from the level in January 2008.

The decline in supply to meet lower demand is expected to help stabilize the resale housing market balance and put a floor under prices.

“There is no doubt the market is not as active as it was last year, but there are certainly buyers and sellers in the Canadian residential market,” says the President of the Canadian Real Estate Association, Calvin Lindberg of Vancouver. “In many markets, transactions have a tendency to take longer because of negotiations between the two. Realistic pricing is the key to the sale of residential property in this market. Conditions also vary from one neighbourhood to another, so buyers and sellers should know those details.”

CREA’s President is also confident federal budget initiatives for homebuyers will have an impact later in the year. “The increase in the Home Buyers’ Plan and the First-Time Home Buyers’ Tax Credit to cover closing costs are both important for first time home buyers, and they are an important factor in an active housing market.”

The national average price for home sales via the MLS® in January 2009 is down 11.3 per cent compared to January 2008. This national average price continues to be skewed lower in large part by fewer sales in British Columbia, Alberta and Ontario, where homes are more expensive and demand has softened most. The MLS® average home sale price was up from year-ago levels in Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Prince Edward Island, and Newfoundland & Labrador.

The price trend is similar but less dramatic for the weighted national (and major market) MLS® average price, which compensates for changes in provincial (and major market) sales activity by taking into account provincial (and major market) proportions of privately owned housing stock. The weighted national MLS® average sale price was down 6.2 per cent year-over-year in January. The weighted major market MLS® average home sale price was down 4.6 per cent year-over-year in January.

The major market MLS® residential average price declined by less than the national average on a year-over-year basis. Major markets in which the average price declined by less than the national average include Toronto, Kitchener-Waterloo, St. Catharines, Sudbury, Hamilton-Burlington, Edmonton, London & St. Thomas, and Windsor.

By contrast to year over year declines in the national and major market average price in January 2009, average prices were up from year ago levels in St. John’s, Halifax-Dartmouth, Quebec City, Regina, Saskatoon, Saguenay, Oshawa, Winnipeg, Thunder Bay, Montreal, Ottawa, and Gatineau.

Seasonally adjusted residential dollar volume for MLS® sales totaled $7.4 billion in January 2009, down 3.7 per cent from the previous month and the lowest level since May 2003.

“Weak sales activity in January follows the CREA forecast that national MLS® sales activity will be well below the activity of last year,” says CREA Chief Economist Gregory Klump. “Affordability has improved and will be better during the spring home buying season in many markets compared to last year. However weak consumer confidence is likely to continue squeezing sales activity during the spring home buying season.”

PLEASE NOTE: The information contained in this news release combines both major market and national MLS® sales information from the previous month. The Canadian Real Estate Association has previously released these separately.

CREA cautions that average price information can be useful in establishing trends over time, but does not indicate actual prices in centres comprised of widely divergent neighborhoods or account for price differential between geographic areas. Statistical information contained in this report includes all housing types.

MLS® is a co-operative marketing system used only by Canada’s real estate Boards to ensure maximum exposure of properties listed for sale. The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) is one of Canada’s largest single-industry trade associations, representing more than 98,000 REALTORS® working through more than 100 real estate Boards and Associations. Further information can be found at www.crea.ca.

The full news release is available in PDF format here.
(CREA 13/02/09)

National MLS® home sales activity is expected to decline in 2009 before rebounding in 2010, according to a new residential housing forecast prepared by The Canadian Real Estate Association.

National MLS® home sales activity declined 17.1 per cent in 2008, and MLS® sales activity is forecast to fall an additional 16.9 per cent to 360,900 units in 2009. This would be the lowest level for national sales activity since the year 2000. Sales activity is expected to decline from levels set in 2008 in every province, led by declines in British Columbia, Alberta and Ontario.

National MLS® home sales activity is forecast to rebound by 9.9 per cent to 396,600 units in 2010, marked by an acceleration in activity in the second half of that year. The rebound in activity in 2010 is forecast to be biggest in British Columbia and Alberta.

New listings on the MLS® systems of real estate Boards in Canada have been trending steadily lower since peaking in the second quarter of 2008, and that trend is forecast to continue. It is that combination of rebounding sales activity and fewer new listings that will stabilize the MLS® resale housing market in 2010.

“We are caught in a cycle where consumer confidence has been eroded because of job losses, and consumer confidence is an essential ingredient for housing sales activity,” says the President of The Canadian Real Estate Association, Calvin Lindberg of Vancouver. “And housing activity helps creates jobs.”

“The essential selling ingredients in today’s market are realistic pricing, marketing, and preparation. There are potential buyers making inquiries, but the barrage of economic news makes them much more cautious than before.”

The MLS® sales forecast developed by CREA Chief Economist Gregory Klump shows that fewer transactions in some of Canada’s more expensive housing markets, combined with reduced asking prices, will continue to put downward pressure on average MLS® sale prices.

The national MLS® average home price is forecast to decline eight per cent in 2009, with prices down most in Western provinces and Ontario. By contrast, the average home price in Newfoundland & Labrador is forecast to rise 4.8 percent in 2009. Prices are forecast to stabilize in 2010, with annual price increases of one per cent or less in five provinces.

The price trend is similar but less dramatic for the weighted national MLS® average price, which compensates for changes in provincial sales activity by taking into account provincial proportions of privately owned housing stock. The weighted national MLS® average price is forecast to decline 6.4 per cent in 2009, and hold steady in 2010.

“Increasingly cautious homebuyers and mortgage lenders means that active listings will take longer to sell in 2009 compared to previous years,” said CREA Chief Economist Gregory Klump.

“The national housing market is recalibrating due to weak sales activity,” said Klump. “Supply will take time to adjust to lower demand, but sellers unwilling to accept offers below their expectations will remove their home from the market,” he added. “Fewer active listings reduces buyer choice, and in time puts a floor under prices,” CREA’s Chief Economist added.

Click here for the full PDF version of this news release.
(CREA 09/02/09)

The Chief Executive Officer of the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), Pierre Beauchamp, and Jean-Pierre Blackburn, the Minister of National Revenue, today announced how changes to the Home Buyers’ Plan outlined in the federal budget will help stimulate the housing sector and make it easier for first time home buyers to realize their dream of home ownership.

“We would like to thank the federal government for recognizing of the importance of the housing industry in our economy,” said CREA CEO Pierre Beauchamp, during a formal announcement ceremony with National Revenue Minister Jean-Pierre Blackburn. “There were several incentives in the federal budget designed to address the issue of affordability. This may prove to be one of the most important for generating economic activity.”

Introduced in 1992 by a Conservative government and made permanent by a Liberal government in 1994, the Home Buyers’ Plan (HBP) has broad political and consumer support. It now allows first time homebuyers to withdraw up to $25,000 from their RRSP to be used in a down payment on a residential property. From the day the Plan was launched until today, the maximum withdrawal was $20,000.

This meant the HBP has not kept pace with inflation or home prices and as a result, the Plan did not have the same impact and relevance it did 16 years ago. In 1992, $20,000 represented 13.3 per cent of the average house price, versus about 6.5 per cent today.

“That is important because the size of the down payment a home buyer can make is one of the most important factors in determining affordability,” said Beauchamp. “A plan that helps home buyers increase the down payment can mean lower financing costs, and that is a major factor to home affordability.”

The Home Buyers’ Plan helps Canadians buy their first home and save for retirement at the same time. Since home ownership is the cornerstone of retirement for the vast majority of Canadians, they should not have to choose one or the other. The Home Buyers’ Plan accomplishes that, by allowing Canadians to save for retirement and providing the option to use those RRSP resources at a later date to buy a home.

Research conducted for CREA by the Altus Group also shows that each residential real estate transaction in Canada generates $32,200 in ancillary consumer spending. The study also reported that 94,700 full time direct jobs were generated annually by that ancillary or spin-off activity. The study is posted on the www.crea.ca website.

In 2007, the last year statistics are available for, 52,380 Canadians used the Home Buyers’ Plan. Those transactions generated $1.7 billion in ancillary economic spending. “That economic activity was generated by a plan that did not cost taxpayers a penny,” Beauchamp added, “which is why government action now to adjust the plan to keep it relevant is important for the overall Canadian economy.”

About CREA The Canadian Real Estate Association represents more than 96,000 REALTORS® and 100 local real estate Boards and Associations. To demonstrate the commitment REALTORS® have to improving Quality of Life in their communities, CREA supports growth that encourages economic vitality, provides housing opportunities, respects the environment and builds communities with good schools and safe neighbourhoods.

Click here for a full PDF version of this news release. (CREA 02/02/09)