The Bank of Canada lowered its benchmark overnight lending rate by one quarter of a percentage point to 2.25 per cent at its setting on October 21st. The trend-setting Bank rate, which is set 0.25 percentage points above the overnight lending rate, declined to 2.5 per cent.
The Bank also lowered its policy interest rate by half a percentage point on October 8th, as part of a coordinated cut in interest rates with other central banks. Combined with the interest rate cut on October 21st, the Bank has cut its overnight lending rate by three quarters of a percentage point since it last met to set its policy interest rate on September 3rd.
The Bank’s decision to cut interest rates aims to support Canadian economic growth. The Bank recognized the impact that the global credit crunch is having on global economic growth, indicating “the global economy appears to be heading into a mild recession, led by a U.S. economy already in recession.”
“Slowing global economic growth continues to reduce demand and prices for energy and other commodities,“ said CREA Chief Economist Gregory Klump. “The Bank now expects core inflation to remain below its target of two per cent until the end of 2010, so it can further cut interest rates without worrying about causing inflation to spiral upward.”
To stabilize credit markets in the aftermath of the U.S. sub-prime mortgage market meltdown, the Bank has cut the overnight lending rate by 2.25 percentage points from December 2007 to October 2008.
The Bank reduced its forecast for Canadian economic growth. When announcing further interest rate cuts, it said, “The Bank expects growth to be sluggish through the first quarter of next year, then to pick up over the rest of 2009 and to accelerate to above-potential growth in 2010 supported by improving credit conditions, the lagged effects of monetary policy actions and stronger global growth. The recent sizeable depreciation of the Canadian dollar will also provide an important offset to the effects of weaker global demand and lower commodity prices. Overall, the Bank projects average annual growth in real GDP of 0.6 per cent in both 2008 and 2009, and 3.4 per cent in 2010.”
The Bank had earlier revised its forecast for economic growth downward in its July Monetary Policy Report. Remarks in its October announcement to cut interest rates suggest that it will likely cut interest rates further when it meets to set its policy interest rate on December 9th.
When the Bank cut interest rates on October 21st, the advertised conventional five-year conventional mortgage rate stood at 7.2 per cent. This is virtually unchanged from where it stood a year ago, and 0.35 per cent above where it stood when the Bank made its previous interest rate announcement on September 3rd. Competition among mortgage lenders remains stiff, but discounts off advertised mortgage interest rates remain small and in some cases have been eliminated due to the U.S. subprime mortgage meltdown and resulting global credit crunch. These continue to elevate banks’ cost of funds.
“National resale housing sales activity continues to ease from its peak last year,” said Klump. “Buyers are taking more time to shop. Unlike the U.S., Canadian homeowners are by and large under no pressure to sell, so many unsold listings are being taken off the market. New listings are coming off their peak, which is stabilizing the Canadian resale housing market.” [CREA 21/10/2008]