CREA Disappointed By Bureau Tribunal Filing

Published February 9, 2010 1 Leave a Comment

OTTAWA, Ontario – February 8, 2010 – The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) learned today that the Competition Bureau filed a Notice of Application with the Competition Tribunal against CREA.

“CREA views the Commissioner’s decision as surprising and disappointing,” said Dale Ripplinger, President of CREA.  “We do not agree with the Bureau’s position that certain CREA rules are anti-competitive, either as a matter of fact or as a matter of law.  CREA’s rules allow for innovative business models and provide a broad range of choice for consumers.”

In good faith, CREA engaged in settlement negotiations with the Competition Bureau for several months in an effort to arrive at a consensual resolution.  Unfortunately, the parties were unable to reach an agreement.  This is very disappointing, since CREA has consistently indicated – right from the outset – that it has always been prepared to work with the Competition Bureau to revise its rules to clarify the way the rules operate.

Last week, CREA advised the Commissioner of Competition that CREA had made the business decision to move forward with rule changes to address the issues raised by the Bureau, whether or not a settlement with the Bureau could be reached.

“In making these clarifications on a proactive basis, CREA believes that it is fully addressing the Competition Bureau’s concerns, while ensuring the accuracy and quality of MLS® information that Canadians have come to trust and REALTOR® compliance with a code of ethics” said Ripplinger.

The Commissioner’s press release states that CREA’s rules restrict consumer choice and prevent innovative business models.  That is simply false.  CREA is disappointed that the Bureau would make this statement in view of the months of discussions about CREA’s rules and CREA’s consistent position that its rules are not intended to and do not restrict any business models.

The real estate industry in Canada is highly competitive and thrives on small businesses with independent agents, brokers and franchises conducting a wide variety of transactions every day. CREA currently has more than 98,000 members operating independently across the country to compete for consumer business, offering a wide array of services and pricing structures.

“CREA’s interest and that of its members is to ensure consumers have choice, that they are protected during one of the most significant transactions they will undertake, and that the integrity of the MLS® system is preserved for the benefit of REALTORS® and the Canadian public” added Ripplinger.

About The Canadian Real Estate Association

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) is one of Canada’s largest single-industry trade associations, representing more than 98,000 real estate Brokers/agents and salespeople working through more than 100 real estate Boards and Associations.

For more information, please contact:
Alyson Fair
613-237-7111 or 613-884-1460
Email: afair@crea.ca

Ray Sapiano
613-237-7111 or 613-290-8902
Email: rsapiano@crea.ca

Resale housing forecast extended to 2011

Published February 8, 2010 1 Leave a Comment

OTTAWA – February 8, 2010 – The Canadian Real Estate Association has revised its forecast for home sales via the MLS® Systems of Canadian real estate boards in 2010, and extended the forecast to 2011.

With Canadian economic growth rebounding from the recession, the unusually severe decline in sales activity in early 2009 is not expected to recur in 2010.  Annual activity in 2010 is forecast to be well above the previous year’s level as a result.

CREA forecasts national activity will reach 527,300 units in 2010, up 13.3 per cent from 2009. This would represent a new annual record, standing 1.2 per cent above the previous peak in 2007. Low interest rates are expected to boost housing demand in the first half of the year, resulting in strong annual sales growth in nearly all provinces in 2010, led by British Columbia and Ontario.

National home sales activity is expected to remain strong in the first half of 2010, fuelled by low interest rates and homebuyers motivated to avoid the HST before it comes into effect in Ontario and British Columbia.  Over the second half of the year, national activity is expected to trend downward as the last of pent-up demand is exhausted, interest rates begin rising, and the HST comes into effect in Ontario and British Columbia.

Interest rate increases will contribute to weaker national sales activity in 2011.  National home sales activity is forecast to decline 7.1 per cent to 490,100 units in 2011, putting it on par with annual levels reported in 2005 and 2006.

“Although interest rates are expected to rise, they will still be low enough to keep affordability within reach for many homebuyers requiring mortgage financing, and support overall housing demand,” said CREA President Dale Ripplinger.

The national average home price is forecast to climb 5.4 per cent in 2010, reaching a record $337,500, with average price gains forecast in all provinces. The national average price increase will continue to reflect upward skewing from the rebound in activity among Canada’s priciest markets, particularly in British Columbia and Ontario.

The national average price is forecast to ease by 1.5 per cent in 2011. Modest average price gains are forecast for all provinces except British Columbia and Ontario, whose share of national activity is expected to ease. The shift in the contribution made by provinces toward national activity will continue skewing the annual comparison in the national average price in 2011.

The price trend is similar but less dramatic for the weighted national average price, which compensates for changes in provincial sales activity by taking into account provincial proportions of privately owned housing stock. The weighted national average price is forecast to climb 4.8 per cent in 2010, and remain stable in 2011.

“Improved financial market stability and recovering global economic growth mean that home sales activity in 2010 is unlikely to repeat the dive it experienced in late 2008 and early 2009,” said Chief Economist Gregory Klump.

“Fiscal restraint, a strong Canadian dollar and a subdued inflation outlook point to marginal interest rate increases over the next couple of years, especially if the U.S. economic recovery proves to be weak and protracted,” said Klump.

“The Bank of Canada will need time to gauge the effect of interest rate increases on Canadian economic growth,” Klump said.  “It recognizes that consumer debt burdens are running high, so it will want to gauge the impact of interest rate hikes on domestic demand and overall economic growth. Changes in interest rates impact the economy with a lag, so the timing and magnitude of interest rate hikes will be tricky, given that the Bank expects the private sector to lead economic growth once temporary government stimulus spending expires,” he added.

“The decline and subsequent rebound in sales activity for homes in the upper price spectrum in some of Canada’s priciest markets skewed average prices upward in the second half of 2009 and into 2010. This segment of housing activity in Ontario and British Columbia is expected to ease beginning in the second half of 2010, causing average prices to moderate in those provinces,” said Klump.

“A downward trend in national sales activity combined with an increase in listings will result in a more balanced market. Although builders are understandably more upbeat than they were during the depth of the recession, speculative building will likely continue to be held in check. As a result, while the real estate market will become more balanced, Canada will continue to avoid the massive realignment in housing supply and demand experienced in the U.S.”

CREA Residential Market Forecast:

Residential unit sales forecast 2009 2009 Annual percentage change 2010 Forecast 2010 Annual percentage change 2011 Forecast 2011 Annual percentage change
Canada 465,251 7.7 527,300 13.3 490,100 -7.1
British Columbia 85,028 23.4 101,900 19.8 88,800 -12.9
Alberta 57,786 2.5 63,050 9.1 64,000 1.5
Saskatchewan 10,856 6.5 10,900 0.4 11,050 1.4
Manitoba 13,086 -3.2 14,050 7.4 14,350 2.1
Ontario 195,840 8.2 223,700 14.2 200,300 -10.5
Quebec 79,290 3.3 87,950 10.9 85,450 -2.8
New Brunswick 7,003 -7.3 7,550 7.8 7,700 2.0
Nova Scotia 10,021 -7.8 11,400 13.8 11,500 0.9
Prince Edward Island 1,404 -0.6 1,450 3.3 1,450 0.0
Newfoundland 4,416 -5.9 4,900 11.0 5,050 3.1
Residential average price forecast 2009 2009 Annual percentage change 2010 Forecast 2010 Annual percentage change 2011 Forecast 2011 Annual percentage change
Canada 320,333 5.0 337,500 5.4 332,400 -1.5
British Columbia 465,725 2.4 485,500 4.2 476,600 -1.8
Alberta 341,201 -3.3 357,300 4.7 361,700 1.2
Saskatchewan 233,695 4.1 242,500 3.8 248,500 2.5
Manitoba 201,343 5.8 210,300 4.4 215,300 2.4
Ontario 318,366 5.3 332,700 4.5 326,000 -2.0
Quebec 225,412 4.7 240,500 6.7 249,100 3.6
New Brunswick 154,906 6.3 159,400 2.9 164,200 3.0
Nova Scotia 196,690 3.6 200,900 2.1 204,700 1.9
Prince Edward Island 146,044 4.4 149,900 2.6 153,200 2.2
Newfoundland 206,374 15.6 222,300 7.7 238,900 7.5

NOTE: All statistics contained in this release are obtained through analysis of the MLS® Systems of real estate Boards across Canada.

MLS® Systems are co-operative marketing systems used only by Canada’s real estate Boards to ensure maximum exposure of properties listed for sale.

About The Canadian Real Estate Association

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) is one of Canada’s largest single-industry trade associations, representing more than 98,000 real estate Brokers/agents and salespeople working through more than 100 real estate Boards and Associations.

Registrants in any province who become members of organized real estate have an obligation to act in accordance with the REALTOR® Code. This Code outlines the accepted standard of conduct for all real estate practitioners who are members of a real estate Board or a Provincial Association.

CREA owns the MLS® and REALTOR® trademarks, which signify a high standard of service and identify members of CREA.

For further information, please contact:

Spencer Callaghan, Communications Officer
The Canadian Real Estate Association
P: 613-237-7111 or 613-884-1460
E: scallaghan@crea.ca

To view the complete release visit: http://www.crea.ca/public/news_stats/pdfs/nationalresidentialforecast2010.pdf

REALTORS® welcome EI benefits for Self-Employed

Published February 1, 2010 1 Leave a Comment
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Ottawa – February 1, 2010 – On behalf of Human Resources and Skills Development Minister Diane Finley, Rob Moore, Minister of State for Small Business and Tourism, joined today with Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) CEO Pierre Beauchamp to announce that self-employed REALTORS® can now participate in the Employment Insurance (EI) program.

“From coast-to-coast-coast, a large majority of REALTORS® are self-employed,” says Mr. Beauchamp. “By creating a level playing field within the EI program, many of our members will no longer have to worry about taking time away from their careers to have a baby or care for a family member who is gravely ill.”

Bill C-56, the Fairness for the Self-Employed Act, extends EI benefits for self-employed REALTORS® for:

· maternity benefits (15 weeks maximum), which are available to mothers and cover the period surrounding birth (a claim can start up to eight weeks before the expected birth date);
· parental/adoptive benefits (35 weeks maximum), which are available to biological or adoptive parents while they are caring for a newborn or newly adopted child, and may be taken by either parent or shared between them;
· sickness benefits (15 weeks maximum), which may be paid to a person who is unable to work because of sickness, injury or quarantine; and
· compassionate care benefits (six weeks maximum), which may be paid to persons who have to be away from work temporarily to provide care or support to a family member who is gravely ill with a significant risk of death.

Self-employed Canadians who voluntarily opt in to the EI program are eligible to collect benefits as early as January 1, 2011.

“CREA is thrilled that the Government of Canada listened to REALTORS® and other self-employed Canadians,” says CREA President Dale Ripplinger. “To have this legislation introduced and passed so promptly demonstrates the government’s willingness to help each and every working Canadian.”

“It’s nice to know that REALTORS® now have the choice to balance career and family along with other working Canadians,” adds Bruce Mullett, Chair of CREA’s Federal Affairs Committee. “Real estate transactions contribute $132 billion to the economy and add 202,750 jobs annually to Canada’s economy.”

REALTORS® who opt in to the program will pay the same EI premium rate as salaried employees in their province. They will not be required to pay the employer portion of premiums, which takes into account the fact they will not have access to EI regular benefits. Premiums, and resulting benefits, will be based on income.

About The Canadian Real Estate Association

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) is one of Canada’s largest single-industry trade associations, representing more than 98,000 real estate Brokers/agents and salespeople working through more than 100 real estate Boards and Associations.

Registrants in any province who become members of organized real estate have an obligation to act in accordance with the REALTOR(R) Code. This Code outlines the accepted standard of conduct for all real estate practitioners who are members of a real estate Board or a Provincial Association.

CREA owns the MLS(R) and REALTOR(R) trademarks, which signify a high standard of service and identify members of CREA.

For further information: or to arrange an interview, please contact:
Alyson Fair, Publicist
The Canadian Real Estate Association
(613) 237-7111 ext 2284
afair@crea.ca

Bank of Canada maintains interest rates

Published January 21, 2010 1 Leave a Comment
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Reiterates commitment to hold until end of second quarter of 2010

As was widely expected, the Bank of Canada held its benchmark overnight lending rate steady at 0.25 per cent at its setting on January 19th, 2010. The trend-setting Bank rate, which is set 0.25 percentage points above the overnight lending rate, remains at 0.5 per cent.

With the economic recovery under way, the Bank acknowledged that the outlook for global growth was “somewhat stronger” than it had predicted in October, but stressed that this was still very much dependent on “exceptional monetary and fiscal stimulus, as well as extraordinary measures taken to support financial systems.” The Bank did, however, remove its comment regarding “significant fragilities” in the global economy, which had featured prominently in the previous two announcements.

Economic growth in Canada turned positive in the third quarter, and is expected to have improved further in the fourth quarter, accompanied by an increase in total CPI inflation, and higher than expected core rate of inflation.

The Bank said it believes that the Canadian economy will have contracted 2.5 per cent 2009, though annual data is not yet finalized. The Bank had originally predicted a 2.4 per cent decline. The Bank also made some small changes to its forecast for this year and next. The Bank now sees economic growth of 2.9 per cent in 2010, down slightly from the 3.0 per cent projection in October.

For 2011, the forecast was upgraded to 3.5 per cent from 3.3 per cent last fall. The Bank said “the private sector should become the sole driver of domestic demand in 2011,” which is when government stimulus is set to expire.

The Bank named a number of factors supporting Canada’s economic recovery – policy support, increased confidence, improving financial conditions, global growth, and higher terms of trade. The Bank reiterated that the strong Canadian dollar and weak U.S. demand were the main drags on the Canadian economy. As a result, growth continues to be driven more by the domestic side and less by exports.

The Bank said that the profile for the recovery in Canada was still consistent with its October Monetary Policy Report, saying inflation would return to the 2 per cent target in the third quarter of 2011. Conditional on this outlook, the overnight rate can be expected to remain at its current level until the end of the second quarter of 2010.

The Bank noted that the risks to the inflation outlook remain unchanged from those outlined in the October Monetary Policy Report. Inflation could climb faster if global and domestic demand ends up being stronger than currently expected. By contrast, inflationary pressures would be held in check by a more protracted global recovery and persistent strength in the Canadian dollar.

While the Bank said it judged these risks to be roughly balanced, it noted that, since it cannot lower rates any further, the overall risk to the projection are tilted slightly to the downside.

“The Bank of Canada’s decision to leave rates on hold, until at least the second half of 2010, confirms the view that it’s still to early to even consider tapping the brakes on economic growth,” said CREA’s Chief Economist Gregory Klump. “While interest rates will eventually rise, the increases are likely to be small. The Bank recognizes that economic growth will rely on domestic demand once temporary government spending measures aimed at propping up economic growth expire. Raising interest rates too soon and by too much runs the risk of choking economic growth.”

As of January 19th, the advertised five-year conventional mortgage rate stood at 5.49 per cent. This is down 1.26 per cent from one year earlier, and stands 0.1 per cent below where it stood when the Bank made its previous interest rate announcement on December 8th.

Improving credit market conditions have enabled lenders to reintroduce discounts off posted mortgage interest rates. Discounts of up to a percentage point can be negotiated, depending on lender-client relationship.

http://creastats.crea.ca/natl/interest_rate_trends.htm

(CREA 01/19/2010)

2009 resale housing market ends on a high note

Published January 15, 2010 1 Leave a Comment

Existing home sales activity reached the highest level ever for the month of December, according to statistics released by The Canadian Real Estate Association. Strong demand in the second half of 2009, especially in the fourth quarter, pushed annual sales above 2008 levels.

Residential sales activity via the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) of Canadian real estate boards numbered 27,744 units in December 2009. This stands 72 per cent above activity in December 2008, when activity dropped to the lowest level in a decade. New records for the month of December were reported in Ontario, Quebec, Saskatchewan, New Brunswick, and Newfoundland & Labrador.

Seasonally adjusted national home sales totalled 46,805 units in December, capping the strongest fourth quarter period ever. A total of 137,957 homes traded hands on a seasonally adjusted basis in the fourth quarter of 2009. This is up 2.6 per cent from the previous record set in the first quarter of 2007. New quarterly records were set in British Columbia, Ontario, and Quebec.

National sales activity began 2009 on a weak footing. Despite year-over-year increases in the second and third quarters of the year, year-to-date activity was still trailing 2008 levels at the end of September 2009. A 59 per cent year-over-year gain in the fourth quarter of 2009 pushed sales activity above annual levels for 2008.

“Sales activity in 2009 came in like a lamb and went out like a lion,” said CREA President Dale Ripplinger. “The continuation of unusually low interest rates may keep national sales activity near current levels over the coming months, as will a blip in housing demand in Ontario and British Columbia from homebuyers motivated to beat the introduction of the HST.”

Annual activity in 2009 was down 10.7 per cent from the peak reached in 2007. A total of 465,251 homes traded hands through the MLS® systems of real estate boards in Canada in 2009. This is up 7.7 per cent from 2008 levels, and represents the fourth highest level on record for annual activity.

The national residential average price was $337,410 in December, up 19 per cent year-over-year. On an annual basis, average price climbed five per cent to a record $320,333. Average prices set new annual records in a majority of local markets in 2009, and in every province except Alberta.

The large year-over-year increase in the national average price in December reflects the high degree to which it was skewed downward in late 2008 by unusually low activity in Canada’s priciest markets. The national average price was also skewed upward by rebounding activity in the spring and summer months of 2009. The national average price rose to unprecedented heights at that time, despite records having been set in only a small number of local markets.

The contribution of activity by higher priced markets toward the national average price has recently returned to more typical levels. Record level average prices in most regions are now driving the national average price to new heights.

The price trend is similar but less dramatic for the national weighted average price, which compensates for changes in provincial sales activity by taking into account provincial proportions of privately owned housing stock. It climbed 3.6 per cent in 2009.

The residential average price in Canada’s major markets was up 5.5 per cent year-over-year to $348,840 in 2009. As with the national counterpart, the price trend is similar but less dramatic for the major market weighted average price, which rose 2.3 per cent from 2008 levels.

Strong demand and headline average price gains are drawing more sellers to the market. New listings coming onto Board MLS® Systems across Canada rose to the highest level on record for the month of December, with a total of 33,090 residential properties coming on stream. This is up 4.8 per cent from December 2008, the first year-over-year gain in a year. On a seasonally adjusted basis, new listings rose by 4.7 per cent in December 2009 compared to the previous month.

The recent rising trend in new listings has not yet offset the steep decline in the number of new listings during the first half of 2009. As a result, new listings in 2009 were down 12.6 per cent from the annual peak in 2008.

Despite the recent rise in new listings, strong demand for resale housing continues to draw down inventories. There were 154,264 homes listed for sale on Boards’ MLS® Systems in Canada at the end of December 2009, a decline of 22 per cent from levels reported one year ago.

Nationally, there were 4.1 months of inventory in December 2009 on a seasonally adjusted basis. This is the lowest level in more than two years.

The actual (not seasonally adjusted) number of months of inventory in December 2009 stood at 5.6 months, the lowest December figure since 2005, and well below the same month in 2008 (12.3 months). Although up slightly from November (five months), an increase is normal at this time of year since demand normally eases relative to supply over autumn and winter months. The number of months of inventory is the number of months it would take to sell current inventories at the current rate of sales activity.

“CREA’s latest statistics will no doubt spark further bubble talk amongst the usual suspects,” said CREA Chief Economist Gregory Klump. “Cooler heads recognize that many of the recent gains reflect temporary factors that could fade by summer.”

“The extraordinary decline in activity one year ago and subsequent rebound, particularly for higher-priced real estate, is stretching current year-over-year comparisons,” he said. “By the second half of 2010, price gains are likely to shrink significantly, since a year will have elapsed since the decline and rebound. Klump added that, “Further expected increases in supply will also take some steam out of the market. A more balanced market will result in smaller price increases in the second half of the year, but a massive decline in demand similar to what we saw in late 2008 and early 2009 seems as unlikely as a massive spike in supply.”

To view the complete release: http://www.crea.ca/public/news_stats/pdfs/media_dec09.pdf

REALTOR® PRIDE GOES FOR GOLD!

Published January 12, 2010 1 Leave a Comment

One month until the start of the 2010 Games and two western REALTORS® are ready to own the podium in Whistler.

(JANUARY 12th) – For REALTORS® Lyndon Rush and Bret Bresciani, there are some similarities between being a top seller and being part of Canada’s winning bobsledding team. The backbone of each profession lies with teamwork.

 “Both are competitive but require cooperation with your peers to do well, “ says Lyndon Rush who sells commercial real estate in Red Deer, Alberta while piloting our country’s four-man and two-man bobsled teams. “In bobsledding, you need to network with the other teams to gain knowledge about the tracks and acquire new and better equipment. Similarly as a REALTOR®, you’re competing for customers but need to cooperate in order to serve those customers the best.”

 His teammate, residential REALTOR® Bret Bresciani agrees. “In both situations you are sometimes forced to compete against your teammate, for clients and sales—or with bobsled for a spot on the team you want to push from. But in the end you’re still on the same team.”

 And it is that teamwork that they hope will bring them to the podium in Whistler this February. Both Lyndon and Bret have taken the past year off from real estate to train for this moment, with the complete support of the REALTOR® community. Royal LePage Canada is sponsoring Lyndon’s two-man sled and both athletes’ offices are behind their efforts 100 per cent.

“The workers at my office (Calgary’s RE/MAX House of Real Estate) are watching my results and cheering me on, “ says Bret. For Lyndon, the support for pursuing his dream has come from Team Rush, which is run by his father, Jerry Rush. According to Jerry, “LD (as he is called by his family) is fortunate to be in commercial real estate where he has evenings and weekends off and it is easier to schedule regular training times. What other career could you have that would allow you such flexibility?”

 In order to qualify for the 2010 Olympics, Lyndon and Bret are currently competing in a European tour. They both hope to return in February and attend the Olympics – making Canada proud.

Final selection of the Olympic bobsled team will be made public January 27th. Olympic bobsled competition begins on Sunday, February 21st for the two-man sled and February 26th for the four-man event.

 

About Lyndon Rush

Lyndon played football for five years at the University of Saskatchewan before receiving a call from Bobsleigh Canada Skeleton urging him to give the sport of bobsled a try. Lyndon has developed into one of the top pilots in Canada while specializing in commercial real estate for Team Rush in Red Deer, Alberta. He is married and has two daughters, Olivia and Amelia.

About Bret Bresciani

Hailing from Okotoks, Alberta, Bret chose to slide instead of play football when he began studies at the University of Calgary in 2002. He is currently part of Canada’s 2009-10 World Cup bobsled team. When he is not training on the track, he is a residential REALTOR® for the RE/MAX House of Real Estate in Calgary.

Consumer confidence ends on a stronger footing

Published December 22, 2009 1 Leave a Comment
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National consumer confidence ended the year 2009 on a stronger footing compared to pre-recession levels, despite having edged down slightly the fourth quarter compared to the third quarter. According to the Conference Board of Canada’s index of consumer confidence, confidence eased slightly in the fourth quarter for the first time in three quarterly periods. The decrease in confidence reflects weakening sentiment about making major purchases.

The balance of sentiment about making major purchases, such as a home or a car, dipped slightly into negative territory in the fourth quarter. It had turned positive in the third quarter for the first time since the first quarter of 2008.

A negative balance of sentiment means more survey respondents said it was a bad time to buy a big-ticket item, such as a home or car, than said it was a good time to do so. This indicator is an important factor underlying the housing market.

The balance of sentiment about job growth prospects continued improving in the fourth quarter of 2008, staying positive for the second consecutive quarter. More survey respondents expect employment to pick up over the next six months, and fewer expect more layoffs.

The balance of sentiment about households’ budgetary outlook softened marginally in the fourth quarter, but remains upbeat. A positive balance of opinion means more households said they expect their household budget to improve in the next six months than said they think it will worsen.

British Columbia
Consumer confidence in British Columbia eased slightly in the fourth quarter of 2009, according to the Conference Board of Canada’s index of consumer confidence. Moderating confidence in the fourth quarter reflects softening sentiment about households’ budgetary outlooks, job prospects, and major purchases.

The balance of sentiment about making a major purchase, such as a home or a car, fell sharply and again turned negative in the fourth quarter. It had turned positive in the third quarter for the first time in two years.

A negative balance of opinion means more survey respondents said that it was a bad time to buy a big-ticket item, such as a home or car, than said it was a good time to do so. This indicator is an important factor underlying the housing market.

Sentiment about job growth prospects deteriorated in the fourth quarter. Although the balance of sentiment about near term job growth remained negative for the seventh consecutive quarter, it remained significantly less negative compared to where it stood at the height of the economic recession.

The balance of sentiment about households’ budgetary outlook stayed upbeat for the third consecutive quarter.

Prairie region
Consumer sentiment in the Prairie region improved for the third consecutive quarter in the fourth quarter of 2009, returning to the pre-recession level recorded in the second quarter of 2008.

Sentiment about making major purchases, such as a home or a car, improved for the fourth consecutive quarter. The balance of sentiment about making major purchases has stayed positive for two consecutive quarters, returning to levels on par with the third quarter of 2007.

A positive balance of sentiment means more survey respondents said it was a good time to buy a big-ticket item, such as a home or car, than said it was a bad time to do so. This indicator is an important factor underlying the housing market.

Sentiment about job growth prospects continued improving, building on significant increases recorded in the previous two quarters. The balance of opinion about job growth has stayed positive for three consecutive quarters, and is also back on par with pre-recession levels.

The balance of sentiment about the outlook for household budgets edged down only marginally in the fourth quarter on 2009 compared to the previous quarter.

Ontario
Consumer confidence in Ontario dipped slightly in the fourth quarter of 2009 after having risen in each of the three previous quarters, according to the Conference Board of Canada’s index of consumer confidence. The slight decline in confidence reflects weakened sentiment about households’ budgetary outlooks and about making major purchases.

The balance of sentiment about making major purchases, such as a home or a car, turned negative in the fourth quarter. In the third quarter, it had turned positive for the first time since the fourth quarter of 2007.

A negative balance of opinion means more households said it was a bad time to buy a big-ticket item, such as a home or car, than said it was a good time to do so. This is an important factor underlying the housing market.

The balance of sentiment about job growth prospects improved compared to the previous quarter, turning positive for the first time since the second quarter of 2006.

The balance of sentiment about the outlook for household budgets stayed positive for the third consecutive quarter in the fourth quarter of 2009, despite having softened slightly.

Quebec
Consumer confidence in Quebec eased in the fourth quarter of 2009 but remains well above levels recorded at the height of the economic recession, according to the Conference Board of Canada’s index of consumer confidence. The decrease in confidence reflects weaker sentiment about household budgets and about making major purchases.

Despite having softened compared to the previous quarter, the balance of sentiment about making major purchases, such as a home or a car, remained positive in the fourth quarter. This represents the third consecutive quarter in which the balance of sentiment about making major purchases stayed positive.

A positive balance of opinion means more households said it was a good time to buy a big-ticket item, such as a home or car, than said it was a bad time to do so. This indicator is an important factor underlying the housing market.

The balance of sentiment about job growth prospects turned positive for the first time since the beginning of 2008.

The balance of sentiment about the outlook for household budgets for the next six months eased in the fourth quarter, but nevertheless remained positive.

Atlantic region
Consumer sentiment improved significantly in the fourth quarter of 2009, continuing its rise above pre-recession levels according to the Conference Board of Canada’s index of consumer confidence for the region. This marked the fourth consecutive increase in confidence.

Sentiment about making major purchases, such as a home or a car, held steady. The balance of sentiment about big-ticket purchases remained positive for the second consecutive quarter.

A positive balance of sentiment means more survey respondents said it was a good time to buy a big-ticket item, such as a home or car, than said it was a bad time to do so. This indicator is an important factor underlying the housing market.

After improving for a fourth consecutive quarter, the balance of sentiment about job growth became positive in the fourth quarter of 2009. This is its first positive reading since the second quarter of 2008.

The balance of sentiment about the outlook for household budgets over the next six months also improved in the fourth quarter. This marks the fourth consecutive quarter in which the balance of sentiment about the outlook for household budgets stayed upbeat.

(CREA 11/22/09)

Existing home sales activity remains strong in November

Published December 15, 2009 1 Leave a Comment
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According to statistics released by The Canadian Real Estate Association, existing home sales activity remained upbeat in November 2009. The current strength of housing demand stands in sharp contrast to weak activity recorded one year ago.

A total of 36,383 residential properties traded hands via the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) of Canadian real estate boards in November 2009. Up 73 per cent from year-ago levels, activity was down just four tenths of a per cent from the highest level of activity for the month posted in November 2007. Home sales set new records for the month of November in Ontario and Quebec.

“National home sales activity last month shows how strongly the housing market has rebounded since the beginning of the year,’ said CREA President Dale Ripplinger. “As we predicted last April, the rebound in resale housing activity led the overall Canadian economy out of recession.”

The unprecedented year-over-year gain in activity underscores the extent to which demand has recovered from one year ago, when news of the global financial crisis hammered consumer confidence. Year-over-year gains were biggest in British Columbia (165 per cent) and Ontario (77 per cent).

Since the beginning of 2009, some 437,507 homes have been sold through Canadian MLS® Systems. This is up five per cent from activity in the first 11 months of 2008, but below levels for the period in each of the previous three years.

The national residential average price was $337,231 in November, a gain of 19 per cent compared to one year ago. For the year-to-date, the average price is up 4.4 per cent compared to the same period last year. The year-over-year increase in November continues to reflect the high degree to which the average was skewed downward last year by plummeting activity in Canada’s priciest markets, and then upward by rebounding activity. Average price in November edged back from the peak reached in October.

The price trend is similar but less dramatic for the national MLS® weighted average price, which compensates for changes in provincial sales activity by taking into account provincial proportions of privately owned housing stock. The weighted average price climbed 13 per cent on a year-over-year basis in November. This is a smaller increase compared to the year-over-year gain of 14 per cent recorded the previous month.

The residential average price in Canada’s major markets was up 20 per cent year-over-year to $368,665. As with the national counterpart, the price trend is similar but less dramatic for the major market weighted average price which rose 11 per cent from last November.

The return of strong demand and headline average price gains is beginning to draw more sellers back to the market. Seasonally adjusted new listings coming onto Boards’ MLS® Systems across Canada rose five per cent on a month-over-month basis in November to 69,110 units. This is the biggest monthly increase since January 2008.

Despite the uptick in new listings, the sharp rise in resale housing demand continues to draw down inventories. There were 183,710 homes listed for sale on Boards’ MLS® Systems in Canada at the end of November 2009. This is down 23 per cent from levels reported one year ago, and the seventh month in a row in which inventories have declined from year-ago levels.

Nationally, there were four months of inventory in November 2009 on a seasonally adjusted basis, the lowest level in more than two years. The actual (not seasonally adjusted) number of months of inventory in November 2009 stood at five months, up slightly from the previous month (4.6 months). An increase is normal at this time of year, since demand tends to ease relative to supply over autumn and winter months. The number of months of inventory is the number of months it would take to sell current inventories at the current rate of sales activity.

“The latest batch of seasonally adjusted statistics may reflect distortions in the seasonal adjustment procedure due to an extraordinarily weak housing market one year ago,” said CREA Chief Economist Gregory Klump. “Deteriorating housing affordability will reign in sales activity as the overall economy further improves and the pool of buyers who qualify for financing shrinks.”

http://www.crea.ca/public/news_stats/pdfs/Nov09_e.pdf

(CREA 11/15/09)

Bank of Canada maintains interest rates

Published December 9, 2009 1 Leave a Comment
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Reiterates commitment to hold until end of second quarter of 2010

As was widely expected, the Bank of Canada held its benchmark overnight lending rate steady at 0.25 per cent at its setting on December 8th, 2009. The trend-setting Bank rate, which is set 0.25 percentage points above the overnight lending rate, remains at 0.5 per cent.

The Bank acknowledged that global economic developments have been slightly more positive, and that the global outlook had improved modestly since its October announcement, but noted “significant fragilities remain.”

As the Bank predicted in October, recent growth in Canada has been coming more from the domestic side and less from exports, the result of the persistent strength in the Canadian dollar. On balance, this shift resulted in weaker than expected growth in the third quarter.

The Bank noted that the risks to the inflation outlook remain unchanged from those outlined in the October Monetary Policy Report. Inflation could climb faster if global and domestic demand ends up being stronger than currently expected. By contrast, inflationary pressures would be held in check by a more protracted global recovery and persistent strength in the Canadian dollar.

While the Bank said it judged these risks to be roughly balanced, it noted that, since it cannot lower rates any further, the overall risk to the projection are tilted slightly to the downside.

The Bank said that the profile for the recovery in Canada was still consistent with its October Monetary Policy Report, saying inflation would return to the 2 per cent target by the second half of 2011. However, in its October announcement, the Bank had said inflation was projected to get back to 2 per cent by the third quarter of 2011.

This subtle change hints at the possibility that the Bank could leave rates unchanged even longer than expected, and may be intended to quiet speculation that the Bank would hike rates before its repeated pledge of July 2010 at the earliest. The Bank’s commitment to keep interest rates on hold until the second half of next year is conditional on the outlook for inflation.

“Repeating its concern voiced in October, the Bank reiterated the risk that the strong Canadian dollar poses to economic growth,” said CREA Chief Economist Gregory Klump. “They also opened the door to keeping interest rates on hold longer than expected. Low interest rates are likely to continue to fuel home price increases.”

As of December 8th, the advertised five-year conventional mortgage rate stood at 5.59 per cent. This is down 1.36 per cent from one year earlier, and stands 0.25 per cent below where it stood when the Bank made its previous interest rate announcement on October 20th.

Improving credit market conditions have enabled lenders to reintroduce discounts off posted mortgage interest rates. Discounts of up to a percentage point can be negotiated, depending on lender-client relationship.

http://creastats.crea.ca/natl/interest_rate_trends.htm

(CREA 12/08/2009)

CANADA’S ONLINE DESTINATION FOR REAL ESTATE GOES MOBILE

Published December 1, 2009 1 Leave a Comment

(OTTAWA, Ontario –December 1st, 2009) – Today, one of Canada’s most popular sources for real estate information is going mobile. REALTOR.ca, a part of the real estate industry for over 13 years, is now available for REALTORS® and consumers on their mobile phones for the very first time.

Keeping REALTORS® and homebuyers informed on the move, the new beta version of mobile.REALTOR.ca means that users can access a snapshot of property listings wherever they are.

“Mobile.REALTOR.ca v1 was designed to be used by REALTORS® and consumers who are driving or walking around, see a property and want more information about it,” says CREA’s Director of Marketing and Member Services, Marc Lafrance. “It was not designed to facilitate extensive searching of large areas or to search using a broad variety of criteria. It was designed to facilitate a quick reference when people see a property and want more information about that particular property right away.”

For REALTORS® and homebuyers, who happen to see a property, the portal offers them the ability to find out more details including price, location, directions and the selling agent information.

The mobile version of REALTOR.ca has been designed to function with Blackberry and Windows mobile operating systems. Users will be able to access the site by connecting to beta.mobile.realtor.ca.

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