CREA News

The Bank of Canada kept its trend-setting Bank Rate at 1.25 per cent on January 17^th, 2012. This marks the 11^th consecutive policy meeting in which borrowing costs have been left unchanged.

While recognizing that the outlook for the global economy had deteriorated and that uncertainty had increased since it released its October Monetary Policy Report (MPR), the Bank also made those same observations at its previous meeting on December 6^th.

Economic growth in Canada had more momentum in the second half of 2011 than the Bank projected in its October MPR, but it expects the pace going forward to slow by more modest than previously expected, due largely to factors outside Canadian borders. This reiterates statements made in December 2011. On the upside, the Bank said that “very favourable financing conditions are expected to buttress consumer spending and housing activity.”

The Bank releases its updated forecast for Canadian economic growth. It now estimates that the economy grew by 2.4 per cent in 2011 compared to the initial estimate of 2.1 per cent, owing to the better than expected end to the year.

The Bank projects growth of 2.0 per cent in 2012 compared to 1.9 per cent in the October MPR, and 2.8 per cent in 2013, down slightly from the previous 2013 forecast of 2.9 per cent, with the big picture being that past and current growth estimates have been revised upward at the expense of future economic growth.

“The Bank said it expects the pace of growth going forward to moderate by more than initially thought, but the forecast for growth this year has actually been raised slightly,” said CREA Chief Economist Gregory Klump. “That reflects a weaker than previously expected growth profile for the first half of 2012, followed by an acceleration in the second half of the year.”

“The Bank reiterated that its outlook remains subject to downside risks from the sovereign debt issue in Europe. Recent credit-rating downgrades to much of the euro zone point to potential contagion by way of a drop in financial market liquidity,” he added. “The bottom line is that the Bank rate is not going to be going up anytime soon, and we may see rates lowered should downside risks materialize.”

The Bank noted that “while the economy appears to be operating with less slack than previously assumed, it is only anticipated to return to full capacity by the third quarter of 2013, one quarter earlier than was expected in October.” Overall, inflation expectations remain “well-anchored.”

A number of financial institutions have recently dropped their five-year lending rates to a record low of 2.99 per cent. This is down considerably from the advertised five-year rate of 5.29 per cent when the Bank last met on December 6^th, 2011.

The Bank will make its next scheduled rate announcement on March 8^th, 2012.

http://creastats.crea.ca/natl/interest_rate_trends.htm

OTTAWA – January 16, 2012 – According to statistics released today by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), national resale housing activity posted an increase from November to December 2011.

Highlights:

• Sales activity rose 1.8 per cent from November to December.
• Annual activity totalled 456,749 sales in 2011, up 2.2 per cent from 2010.
• The number of newly listed homes increased 3 per cent from November to December.
• A simultaneous increase in sales and new listings kept the national resale housing in balanced territory.
• The national average home price was up just 0.9 per cent on a year-over-year basis in December, marking the smallest increase since October 2010.

Sales activity recorded through the MLS® Systems of Canadian real estate Boards and Associations rose 1.8 per cent from November to December 2011, marking the fourth consecutive monthly increase.

Activity rose in more than half of all local markets, including some of Canada’s most active, with monthly declines posted in most of the remaining markets.

Actual (not seasonally adjusted) national sales activity came in 4.6 per cent above year-ago levels in December. It also stood above the five- and ten-year average for December sales.

A total of 456,749 homes traded hands via Canadian MLS® Systems in 2011. This stands broadly in line with the average over the past ten years, and represents an increase of 2.2 per cent from annual levels reported in 2010.

“The momentum in sales activity provides clear evidence that low interest rates continue to draw homebuyers to the housing market,” said Gary Morse, CREA President. “While buyers have become increasingly cautious, the hand off for sales activity going into the New Year suggests that Canada’s housing market will continue to benefit from low interest rates in 2012, and continue making a significant contribution to Canadian economic activity. Even so, prospects among housing markets and neighbourhoods differ, so buyers and sellers should talk to a local REALTOR® to understand how trends are shaping up where they live.”

The number of newly listed homes rose three per cent on a month-over-month basis, reversing an equivalent monthly decline in November. New listings rose in almost 70 per cent of local markets, including some of Canada’s most active.

With sales and new listings having climbed in tandem, the national housing market remained in balanced territory in December. The national sales-to-new listings ratio, a measure of market balance, stood at 54.8 per cent in December, down slightly from 55.5 per cent in November.

Based on a sales-to-new listings ratio of between 40 to 60 percent, just over half of local markets in Canada were balanced in December. This result is little changed from November.

The number of months of inventory represents the number of months it would take to sell current inventories at the current rate of sales activity, and is a further measure of the balance between housing supply and demand. Nationally, it stood at 5.8 months at the end of December, down from 5.9 months at the end of November. While it has held fairly steady near six months since April 2011 onward, it peaked in August, with December marking the fourth monthly decline and a return to where it stood at the end of the first quarter.

The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average price for homes sold in December 2011 was $347,801. This stood just 0.9 per cent above the average selling price in December 2010, marking smallest increase since October 2010.

“Momentum for national sales activity and average price remains positive but is slowing, which suggests that the continuation of low interest rates is not causing the Canadian housing market to overheat,” said Gregory Klump, CREA’s Chief Economist. “High end home sales seem unlikely to spike again in the first quarter like they did at the beginning of 2011, so national average price momentum may wane further over the next few months. With interest rates widely expected to remain low throughout 2012, homeownership will remain affordable, and continue to support home sales activity.”

PLEASE NOTE: The information contained in this news release combines both major market and national MLS® sales information from the previous month.

CREA cautions that average price information can be useful in establishing trends over time, but does not indicate actual prices in centres comprised of widely divergent neighbourhoods or account for price differential between geographic areas.

Statistical information contained in this report includes all housing types.

MLS® is a co-operative marketing system used only by Canada’s real estate Boards to ensure maximum exposure of properties listed for sale.

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) is one of Canada’s largest single-industry trade associations, representing more than 100,000 REALTORS® working through more than 100 real estate Boards and Associations.

Further information can be found at http://www.crea.ca/public/news_stats/media.htm.

OTTAWA - December 15, 2011 – According to statistics released today by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), national resale housing activity rose slightly in November 2011 from the previous month.

Highlights:

• Sales activity rose slightly (+0.5 per cent) from October to November on a seasonally adjusted basis.
• Year-to-date sales remained in line with the 10 year average, but pulled further ahead of last year’s levels.
• The number of newly listed homes was down 3.4 per cent from October to November.
• The national housing market remains balanced, but is edging closer to seller’s market territory.
• The national average price posted a 4.6 per cent year-over-year gain in November, the smallest increase since January.

Sales activity recorded through the MLS® Systems of real estate Boards and Associations in Canada edged upward by one-half of a percentage point. This marks the third straight month in which national activity was up from the previous month’s levels.

Activity rose in about 60 per cent of all local markets with a record November in the Halifax-Dartmouth region offsetting a dip in sales in Toronto.

“The Canadian housing market is proving resilient in the face of ongoing global economic and financial uncertainty, to the benefit of Canadian economic growth,” said Gary Morse, CREA’s President. “That said, some housing markets are picking up while others are holding steady or consolidating, so buyers and sellers should talk to their local REALTOR® to understand current and prospective trends in their local housing market.”

Throughout most months in 2011, actual (not seasonally adjusted) national home sales were in line with the 10-year average. November sales marked a break in that pattern, climbing seven per cent above the 10 year average and reaching the fourth highest level on record for the month.

“Toward the end of every year, there’s a natural inclination to compare how momentum for national sales activity and average price compare to the year before,” said Gregory Klump, CREA’s Chief Economist. “National sales activity picked up late last year, and November’s results suggest that a similar trend may be playing out again this year. By contrast, national average price also picked up toward the end of last year, whereas this year it has held steady after having peaked in the spring.”

“With interest rates expected to remain low for longer, the housing sector will no doubt be closely watched for signs of excess,” added Klump. “That said, current trends for resale housing and new home construction suggest that tightened mortgage regulations are working as intended and fostering economic stability in Canada.”

A total of 432,048 homes have traded hands via Canadian MLS® Systems so far this year, up 2.1 per cent from levels in the first 11 months of 2010. The year-to-date sales figure remains broadly in line (+0.7 per cent) with the average for that period from 2001 to 2010.

Compared to October, the number of newly listed homes fell 3.4 per cent in November. New listings slipped lower in more than two-thirds of Canadian housing markets, with Toronto, the Hamilton-Burlington region, and Calgary contributing most to the national decline.

The national housing market remains balanced, but is edging closer to seller’s market territory. The national sales-to-new listings ratio, a measure of market balance, stood at 55.5 per cent in November, up from 53.4 per cent in October. This marks the third month in which the national ratio has risen, and it now stands at its highest reading since the spring.

Based on a sales-to-new listings ratio of between 40 to 60 percent, just over half of local markets in Canada were balanced in November, while a third of markets qualified as sellers’ markets.

The number of months of inventory nationally stood at six months at the end of November. It has held steady at about this level since April, which is above levels posted during the first quarter. The number of months of inventory represents the number of months it would take to sell current inventories at the current rate of sales activity, and is another measure of the balance between housing supply and demand.

The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average price for homes sold in November 2011 stood at $360,396. This represents a year-over-year increase of 4.6 per cent, its smallest increase since January.

PLEASE NOTE: The information contained in this news release combines both major market and national MLS® sales information from the previous month.

CREA cautions that average price information can be useful in establishing trends over time, but does not indicate actual prices in centres comprised of widely divergent neighborhoods or account for price differential between geographic areas. Statistical information contained in this report includes all housing types.

MLS® is a co-operative marketing system used only by Canada’s real estate Boards to ensure maximum exposure of properties listed for sale.

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) is one of Canada’s largest single-industry trade associations, representing more than 100,000 REALTORS® working through more than 100 real estate Boards and Associations.

Further information can be found at http://www.crea.ca/public/news_stats/media.htm

Ottawa, ON – December 1, 2011 – Earlier this week, a new version of REALTOR.ca was released. This version introduces exciting new features and tools that allow users to customize REALTOR.ca to find what they’re looking faster and easier.

Collapsible panels on the map search page for customized views (Red arrow #1)

• The map search page is currently divided into three panels with the search criteria on the left, the interactive map in the middle and the property thumbnail list on the right.
• Users can now collapse either the criteria panel or the thumbnail panel to have a larger image of the map, allowing much greater flexibility in customizing their view of REALTOR.ca 

Draw an area – Custom map search tool (Polygon Map Tool – BETA format) (Red arrow #2)

• Using their mouse, users can now draw free form shapes on the map to more accurately define the location criteria for their search.
• Users will be able to map a specific neighbourhood or region and use that as their location criteria to find properties that are located within the defined area.
• The map tool is being released in BETA format as we continue to fine-tune its capabilities.
• Please note – we are continuing to improve functionality and enhancing the user experience.

Auto-sizing to fit high resolution (HD) monitors

• Currently REALTOR.ca’s display area is a fixed size on every monitor. The new version will automatically re-size itself to eliminate the white space now seen on high resolution (HD) monitors. 

Social media links

• REALTORS® and Offices now have the ability to display links to their Facebook, Twitter and LinkedIn pages.

OTTAWA – November 15, 2011 – According to statistics released today by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), national resale housing activity picked up a little further in October 2011 following the uptick in September.

Highlights:

• Sales activity rose in October, marking the highest level since January.
• Actual (not seasonally adjusted) national sales activity in October stayed in line with the 10-year average for the month, as it has most months this year.
• Year-to-date sales are also even with the 10-year average.
• The number of newly listed homes remained little changed from levels in the previous three months.
• While the combination of stronger sales and stable new listings resulted in a slightly tighter balance of supply and demand, the national housing market remains firmly rooted in balanced territory.
• The national average price posted a 5.5 per cent year-over-year gain in October, the smallest increase since January.

Homes sold through MLS® Systems of real estate Boards and Associations in Canada rose 1.2 per cent in October 2011 from the previous month. While national sales activity levels are still best described as average, the monthly rise in October sales built on the 2.5 per cent gain in September, and lifted activity to the highest level since January.

Just over half of all local markets posted monthly sales increases, led by gains in Montreal, Toronto, and Vancouver.

“There was no shortage of headline news in October about global financial market volatility and economic uncertainty, but it doesn’t appear to have dampened homebuyers’ spirits,” said Gary Morse, CREA’s President. “Interest rates are at low levels and are likely to stay that way for some time to come. Homebuyers clearly see the opportunities that the current interest rate environment presents. That said, all real estate is local, so buyers and sellers should consult their local REALTOR® for an understanding of opportunities in their housing market.”

As has been the case in most months this year, actual (not seasonally adjusted) national home sales in October stayed in line with the 10-year average for the month. Although up 8.5 per cent from levels one year ago, the gain in large part reflects last year’s nascent pick-up in activity following a mid-year lull.

A total of 397,561 homes have traded hands via Canadian MLS® Systems so far this year. This represents an increase of 1.8 per cent from levels in the first 10 months of 2010, but is directly in line with the 10-year average for the year-to-date figure.

The number of newly listed homes remained little changed in October compared with levels recorded in each of the previous three months.

“The prevailing economic outlook for Canada is one of slower but still positive economic growth, with heightened caution about investment and hiring decisions,” said Gregory Klump, CREA’s Chief Economist. “Consumer confidence and the housing sector are being supported by low interest rates and high employment levels, but their prospects depend on how Canada’s economic outlook evolves in response to global economic risks and outcomes in the months ahead.

Home sales activity over the past couple of months suggests buyers are confident that the Canadian economy will remain relatively unscathed by global economic risks, since every home purchase is a homebuyer’s vote of confidence in the future. That confidence is no doubt rooted in the success of coordinated fiscal and monetary policy responses that helped quickly pull Canada out of the last recession, and a stated willingness and ability to carry out further policy actions if need be.”

While the combination of stable new listings and stronger sales made for a slightly tighter balance between supply and demand in October, the national housing market remains firmly rooted in balanced territory. The national sales-to-new listings ratio, a measure of market balance, stood at 53.4 per cent in October, up from 52.8 per cent in September.

Based on a sales-to-new listings ratio from 40 to 60 percent, about 60 per cent of local markets in Canada were in balanced market territory in October. Of the remaining markets, there was a handful more seller’s markets than buyers’ markets.

The number of months of inventory stood at six months at the end of October on a national basis, little changed from the end of September (6.1 months). It has remained stable at about six months since April. The number of months of inventory represents the number of months it would take to sell current inventories at the current rate of sales activity, and is another measure of the balance between housing supply and demand.

The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average price for homes sold in October 2011 stood at $362,899. This is up 5.5 per cent from October 2010, making it the smallest increase since January.

PLEASE NOTE: The information contained in this news release combines both major market and national MLS® sales information from the previous month.

CREA cautions that average price information can be useful in establishing trends over time, but does not indicate actual prices in centres comprised of widely divergent neighbourhoods or account for price differential between geographic areas.

Statistical information contained in this report includes all housing types.

MLS® is a co-operative marketing system used only by Canada’s real estate Boards to ensure maximum exposure of properties listed for sale.

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) is one of Canada’s largest single-industry trade associations, representing more than 100,000 REALTORS® working through more than 100 real estate Boards and Associations.

Further information can be found at http://www.crea.ca/public/news_stats/media.htm.